Friday, May 27, 2011

2011 Indianapolis 500 Predictions

Today, the final practice session in preparation for Sunday's Indy 500 was held. This gives the teams and drivers a chance after the media blitz throughout the week to get back into race mode, as well as to work on their race set-ups. It also gives the fans a good look at what cars may be near the front on race day. With these results, along with the practice sessions run in preparation for qualifying, here are my predictions for race winners.

Best Odds: Alex Tagliani
Alex has been very fast all month, and will be starting on pole on Sunday. Typically, the 500 is kind to the polesitter for the race, and they often find themselves winning, especially in recent history. Twenty times, the polesitter has gone on to drink the milk, and 42 times someone from the front row has. Each of the last five winners started on the front row, three of which started on pole. Alex was also very quick in today's practice session, second only to Scott Dixon, only a tenth of a second slower on their respective fastest laps.

Fan Favorite: Tony Kanaan
For some reason, people really like TK. I do not. I think he is fake and phony and always has an ulterior motive for his actions. That being said, TK does deserve a win at Indy. He has had nothing but bad luck in the 500, and as much as I don't like him, he has paid his dues. After a violent breakup with Andretti Autosport after last season, and after having his ride at de Ferran Luczo Dragon Racing taken away just weeks before the season started, and having a ride materialize with KV Racing Technology at last second, he does deserve SOMETHING to go his way. He has been quick in the car, much quicker than his teammates, and is a master of passing cars, so his 22nd starting position doesn't mean much.

Darkhorse: Buddy Rice/Ed Carpenter
There was no way that I could not count both of these guys as darkhorses. Ed Carpenter was fastest on the first day of practice and was continually quick throughout the month. Ed is running the ovals this season for Sarah Fisher racing, and after they struggled last year, I could not foresee the performance they have had this month. Buddy Rice was the winner of the rain-shortened Indy 500 in 2004, but lost his ride a few years later. (I honestly don't remember what happened, but I did not think he deserved to lose his ride). Afterward, he was on the outside looking in, and was never able to procure another full-time ride. Panther Racing wanted to field a second car this year with a veteran driver to help their rookie JR Hildebrand, and who better than a former Indy 500 winner? Buddy has been fast all month and had no rust to shake off. The two will start the race side-by-side on the third row, Buddy in 7th and Ed in 8th.

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